Friday, August 20, 2021

DO COVID-19 Rates Correlate With Illegal Immigrants?

I've got four maps from about two weeks ago (sorry...forgot to post this in a timely manner) to give us some visuals that may help gain clarity on this issue. This is not about the issue of illegal immigration - I've written in other places about the importance of having borders maintained by people who love order, justice and mercy.  

This is about making accurate observations in the pursuit of truth when it comes to why COVID-19 is surging right now. 

The first two maps have to do with illegal immigrant concentration in states and cities. This data is hard to find in "real time"; these are the latest official statistics I could find. 





Blue is a more; yellow is less, in case those numbers were hard to read. Below are major cities with the size of the dot representing the size of the population.




Third map: the places where COVID-19 was hot as of early August. 




Simply put, COVID-19 numbers do not correlate cleanly with the illegal immigrant population. 

If illegal immigrants as a group constituted the population of a state, they would rank between 10th and 20th (12%-18%) in COVID positivity (FEMA said it was 6% back in March). Mississippi, Idaho, Oklahoma, Iowa, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Tennessee and Texas would all rank ahead of them. Kentucky, Louisiana and Missouri are are over 15%. 12% -18% is not a good stat to be sure, but singling out immigrants  who have been released to local health departments as the cause of outbreaks when there are pretty solidly in the middle of the pack is pretty myopic. There is clearly more at play. 
  1. Vaccination rates correlate more cleanly but still not perfectly.     
  2. Florida is the #1 tourist destination in the summer in the United States. California is #2, and Texas is #3. Tennessee is #4. So, yeah, we might expect COVID-19 surges there no matter whether or not people are vaccinated. (Number #5 is New Jersey, but they are one of the most vaccinated, and their numbers are good. Do with that what you will. I'm just giving stats.) In the winter, there's all these other spots that get hot. 
  3. Being outdoors or having well ventilated places  is better than being indoors or poorly ventilated in terms of slowing the spread of COVID-19. In July and August, Southern folk spend a lot of time indoors because it's ridiculously hot...and air conditioners spread the virus in enclosed spaces. Meanwhile, Northeners are outside because it's finally nice. You might have noticed our numbers were bad in the spring - when Southerners were outside and our heating systems were doing their thing in enclosed spaces. Watch for numbers to swap in the fall. This is all about "viral load" which will and can break through built-up immunization both natural and chemical.
  4. In states where schools have started, numbers are climbing because #seepreviousbulletpoint
  5. The most unhealthy states are in the South.  No offense intended; it's just a health fact. That's going to make people with comorbidities susceptible to becoming much more sick when they do get COVID-19. Mississippi (122, 662 cased per million; 2,570 death per million) is just going to get hit harder than California (102, 813 cases per million; 1,640 deaths per million from COVID) by the time all is said and done. 
  6. There's probably something to be said for how many people in a given area have already recovered from COVID-19 and have a bolstered immunity because of that. I can't find those stats broken down by state, but it would not surprise me that the more recovered folks there are, the lower the current numbers.  

So.....maybe this is a multifaceted issue?  I think we want an easy villain as to why this keeps dragging out, but the reality is that there are a lot of factors.  


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