What follows are not my words. They are the words of experts in history, business, and economics. If I were to summarize it would be, “Buckle up. If you are a low or middle income family, your budget is about to get really tight.” This isn't about concerns that we aren't financially comfortable. I am deeply concerned about how financial instability and poverty impact human flourishing in the United States. When our economy suffers, the financially stable experience hurdles and will largely be okay; the financially unstable experience devastation, and will not. That is not okay.
I hope that all of these prognosticators are wrong. I doubt that all of them are wrong.
If you want to leave a comment or provide links that counter this narrative, you are welcome to do so. Please, if you do so, read all the excerpts rather than just a few, and feel free to go all the links to see that my excerpts did justice to the articles. These are mostly in chronological order, just to record the history of what made the radar of people concerned about how tariffs will impact the average person.
____________________________________________________
"Daniel Laguna of LevelUp warned that Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports could raise the costs of gaming consoles by 40%, so that a PS5 Pro gaming system would cost up to $1,000.
One of the old justifications for tariffs was that they would bring factories home, but when the $3 billion shoe company Steve Madden announced yesterday it would reduce its imports from China by half to avoid Trump-promised tariffs, it said it will shift production not to the U.S., but to Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico, and Brazil...”
(Historian Heather Cox Richardson, November 8 email)
* * * * * *
“Automotive companies like Nissan and Stellantis are already bracing for cost increases and have announced impending layoffs to mitigate anticipated losses... Leaders from major U.S. corporations, including AutoZone, have confirmed that price increases are on the way, with some anticipating hikes as early as next year.”
“Some Trump Voters Already Regret Their Decision Amid Concerns Over Tariffs, Job Cuts, and Rising Costs." November 10, 2024. Meidas.com
* * * * *
"Mexico’s economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said his country would consider retaliating with tariffs of its own should the incoming US administration impose taxes on Mexican imports. In the last days of the campaign, President-elect Donald Trump vowed toimpose tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexican imports should its southern neighbor fail to crack down on migration and the flow of drugs into the US. “If you apply tariffs, we’ll have to apply tariffs. And what does that bring you? A gigantic cost for the North American economy,” he said...
Trump’s tariff threats do not take into account the countries’ bilateral economic dependence, wrote Americas Quarterly: Mexico sends up to 80% of its exports to the US. Decoupling trade with Mexico would make the fight against Washington’s even larger target, China, more difficult: US imports from China totaled $536.3 billion in 2022, undercutting prices of US products and encouraging foreign manufacturing. Trump has stated that he will also introduce trade tariffs on China of up to 60%. However, too many tariffs risk increasing domestic prices.“[Trump] continues to make China the bogeyman and has indicated he will get more aggressive,” one expert told CNBC, leaving Mexico as a key trade ally to mitigate against the worst economic impacts of Trump’s hard line on China.
"Mexico mulls retaliatory tariffs on US." November 12, 2024. semafor.com.
* * * * *
Bobby Djavaheri is trying to stock up his warehouse with appliances from overseas, while he can still afford it. "We've been preparing for the last six months — both our factories and us as importers — for Trump to win," Djavaheri told CBS News. Djavaheri is president of Los Angeles-based Yedi Houseware Appliances, which manufactures its products in China. He says President-elect Donald Trump's threat to increase tariffs will force him to charge more.
His company's Yedi Evolution air fryer is currently priced at $130, Djavaheri said. He estimates that Trump's proposed tariffs would raise that price to about $200. Yedi's two-quart air fryer currently costs between $30 and $40. Trump's tariffs could raise that to almost $100.
Trump campaigned on implementing a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with an additional 60% or more on goods from China.
"It would decimate our business, but not only our business," Djavaheri said. "It would decimate all small businesses that rely on importing." Djavaheri says it is not Chinese companies that pay the tariffs, it is his own business. "We're getting the bill, the bill comes straight to us from the government," Djavaheri said.
An August study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics indicated that Trump's proposed tariffs could cost middle-income households more than $2,600 a year. In 2018, when Trump slapped tariffs on imported washing machines, prices jumped almost $100. But foreign appliance makers also moved some production to the U.S., and a year later they had created 1,800 new jobs. Other countries, however, retaliated with tariffs on U.S. exports, which led to job losses.
According to Djavaheri, most of Yedi's products cannot at the moment be manufactured in the U.S. "There's no factory in America," Djavaheri said. "A factory that could potentially produce hundreds of thousands of air fryers in one year, same quality, there's no where in the world other than the Chinese." Djavaheri's advice? If you're considering a purchase, make it before the potential tariffs kick in.
"Why Trump's tariff proposals have some business owners worried." cashews.com. November 15, 2024.
* * * * *
“Philip Daniele, the CEO of AutoZone AZO, has stated unequivocally that if these tariffs are imposed, consumers will bear the expense. On a recent earnings call, Daniele said, “If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer.” The company expects to raise prices even before the tariffs take effect, anticipating how these new policies will impact its margins. Many other businesses, particularly those that depend significantly on foreign suppliers, are also preparing for possible price increases, so AutoZone is not the only company preparing for these changes.
Steve Madden is one of the first companies to make a move. The shoe retailer, which sources 70% of its products from China, announced that it will cut its reliance on Chinese production by half, moving to places like Vietnam, Cambodia and Mexico. Even with these changes, customers should anticipate price increases as Steve Madden manages the higher expenses related to the effects of tariffs and changing supply chains.
Columbia Sportswear COLM also raised concerns about how tariffs would make it more difficult to maintain the affordability of its products. According to CEO Tim Boyle, the company may be forced to raise prices to cover the additional tariff charges.
The National Retail Federation expressed similar views, describing the tariffs as “a tax on American families” and warning that the cost of daily goods like furniture, shoes and clothes might rise sharply.
According to their research, a $90 pair of sneakers might cost $106-116 and a $100 coat could cost up to $21 more. Footwear companies, in particular, are worried – since nearly 99% of all shoes sold in the U.S. are made abroad, it will be tough to move production to the U.S. anytime soon.
Stanley Black & Decker SWK is another company planning to deal with the potential impact of tariffs. According to CEO Donald Allan Jr., the company has been considering several options, but manufacturing their goods in the United States isn’t considered practical because of financial difficulties. Rather, they will probably pass on any higher expenses to customers. “And obviously, coming out of the gate, there would be price increases associated with tariffs that we put into the market,” Allan stated.
Even dollar stores aren’t immune. Dollar Tree DLTR, which imports many of its items from China, might have to rethink its fixed-price-point model of $1.25 per item if tariffs increase costs too much. Like other importers, the company faces a difficult choice – absorb higher costs, which would hit profits or raise prices, which could challenge its value-focused business model.
"'We Will Pass Those Tariff Costs Back To The Consumer,' Says CEO Of AutoZone. Here's A Look At Other Companies Raising Prices." benzinga.com. November 17, 2024.
* * * * *
“U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and corn. Farmers and rural economies pay the price as a result.
The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association asked World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES) to evaluate the impact a trade war would have on soybeans and corn today. Bottom line: A repeated tariff-based approach accelerates conversion of cropland in South America, which has permanent ramifications on soybean and corn exports worldwide. And U.S. soybean and corn growers bear the burden...
A reignited trade war would reduce both U.S. soybean and corn prices and the combined production area of the two crops. If it were to occur, a trade war would not only reduce the value of production for U.S. farmers but also have a ripple effect throughout the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, farmers in Argentina and Brazil would see higher soybean and corn prices and be poised to more rapidly expand their production areas. The economies of these two countries would benefit from rising production value. In short, South America would gain on all fronts at the expense of U.S. farmers and the U.S. economy.
"Trade Study: How Potential New Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Soybeans and Corn." ncga.com. October 15, 2024.
* * * * *
Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter. President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries.
There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a “big negative shock” to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore.
Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley’s base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation. "Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies,” he cautioned. “Very clear, tariffs push up inflation. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on,” Carpenter added...
Mark Malek, CIO at brokerage firm Siebert noted that if the proposed tariffs are levied, especially on top of those already imposed by the Joe Biden administration, a slew of sectors including the automobile, consumer electronics, machinery, construction and retail space would see higher inflation.
Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods, along with Biden’s existing 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs, will “significantly impact” the auto industry, while a universal 10% tariff on consumer electronics’ imports would increase costs for companies such as Tesla, Microsoft and Apple, Malek said. These higher costs will will likely be passed along to consumers, he added.
"Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth ‘a great deal’ going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns." cnbc.com November 19, 2024
* * * * *
"Numerous major U.S. corporations addressed tariffs at recent investor events and on conference calls, including some after the November 5 election, when Trump edged out sitting Vice President Kamala Harris.
Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, suggested on Tuesday after reporting results that prices could increase if tariffs rise. “We’re concerned that significantly increased tariffs could lead to increased costs for our customers at a time when they are still feeling the remnants of inflation,” a Walmart spokesperson said...
“Roughly 40% of our cost of goods sold are sourced outside of the U.S., and that includes both direct imports and national brands through our vendor partners,” Lowe’s CFO Brandon Sink said on Tuesday. “And as we look at the potential impacts (of tariffs), it certainly would add to product costs.”
Tariffs could raise prices on clothing, toys, furniture, appliances, footwear, and travel goods, particularly items where China is a major supplier, according to the National Retail Federation, a U.S. trade group of which Walmart’s U.S. head is the chair.
“It is certainly one of the quickest things that could happen, because it could kind of happen with the stroke of a pen,” Stanley Black & Decker CFO Patrick Hallinan said at a Robert W. Baird investor conference last week. He said current tariffs are costing it about $100 million a year, which could double under Trump’s proposals.”
"Walmart's proposed tariffs could increase prices." fast company.com. November 19, 2024.
* * * * *
“The Consumer Technology Association found in its analysis of tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term that they didn’t result in significant increases of consumer electronics manufacturing in the United States. Instead, companies simply moved their manufacturing from one overseas market to another.
One beneficiary of this in the TV space was Taiwan: In 2017, the U.S. imported $4 million worth of TVs from the country; by 2021, TV imports from Taiwan had grown to $607 million...
Companies will likely continue to shift production from China to other overseas markets to escape the highest levies. However, with Trump planning to impose tariffs on all imports, they won’t be able to escape increased costs altogether. In fact, a lot of manufacturers may actually be subject to tariffs on multiple fronts.
Not only does the price of importing goods from overseas increase, they also have to pay more to make those products in the first place due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries, as Roku explained in its 2020 annual report. “China imposed higher Chinese tariffs on a large amount of U.S. exports to China, which could affect the prices of U.S. origin parts or components of our products assembled in China,” the company noted at the time....
The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on global imports and 60% tariffs on imports from China could cost U.S. households $3,000 per year on average; some experts believe that the average cost could be as high as $6,000. This will likely accelerate cord cutting even further, an could drive more consumers to opt for ad-supported tiers.
However, higher costs and lower spending power also threatens the overall economic recovery, with the Tax Foundation estimating that Trump’s tariff plans would shrink the GDP by 0.8% and cost 684,000 U.S. jobs even before other countries impose retaliatory tariffs. That could have ripple effects on the ad market, as we saw in recent years: Ad spending growth in the Americas declined from 22.1% year-over-year in 2021 to just 2.5% in 2023, according to Dentsu’s Global Ad Spending Forecast.
"The Trump tariffs could create a huge headache for streamers." fast company.com
* * * * *
“The bottom line is, tariffs are neither inherently good or inherently bad. They are a tool which, when used strategically, can remedy trade imbalances, protect certain domestic industries, or influence other countries to improve their trade, wage or human rights practices.
The president-elect already imposed considerable tariffs during his first term in the White House and the Biden administration has maintained $360 billion dollars’ worth of Trump’s China tariffs, along with imposing some of their own... Trump now says he plans to increase tariffs in his next presidency, floating the idea of a blanket 20% tariff on every U.S. trading partner and up to 60% on most goods imported from China. He’s even said that in order to keep Chinese electric vehicles from undercutting American electric vehicles, he would impose “whatever tariffs are required — 100%, 200%, 1,000%.”
China dominates the electric vehicle industry. In 2023, China was responsible for 58% of the global EV market, five times the size of the U.S. market. However, Chinese electric vehicles are not sold here in the U.S. thanks, in part, to restrictions imposed by Trump in his last presidency and later upheld by the Biden administration.
One of the most popular Chinese electric vehicles in the world is the sleek BYD Seagull, made by BYD, which stands for Build Your Dreams. Right now, it costs approximately $10,000 to buy a BYD Seagull in China.
If that vehicle was imported to the U.S., with the current tariff on Chinese EVs at 100%, you would pay $20,000 for it. And that $20,000 would still be $8,000 cheaper than the least expensive electric vehicles made in America, like the Nissan Leaf or Chevrolet Bolt. In order for the U.S. to have a competitive edge with China in the electric vehicle industry, these tariffs can clearly help even the playing field.
It’s worth noting that there is an American-made electric vehicle company that happens to benefit from tariffs like these. That is, of course, Elon Musk’s Tesla. Trump named Musk to co-head the new, so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
But here’s the downside of tariffs: They almost always, at least in the immediate future until markets can adjust, make goods more expensive for the American consumer. Tariffs are not, in fact, paid for by foreign countries. It is the importers, aka the American companies, that pay tariffs. And those companies, universally, end up passing that “tax” onto the consumer in the form of higher prices.
So in the end, you, the American consumer, end up footing the bill for tariffs or you don’t buy the product.
"Trump's tariff plan could spark a trade war — and U.S. taxpayers would pay the price." MSNBC.com. November 20, 2024.
* * * * *
"We know thanks to data from the last time he was president. Trade associations project that soybean exports to China would drop 52% while corn exports would drop 84%. The last time round, Trump cushioned the blow by sending farmers payments through the Commodity Credit Corporation—$12 billion in 2018 and $16 billion in 2019. Republicans in the U.S. House plan to ban such payments in the latest Farm Bill.
Where will that leave Sunflower State farmers? Destitute. Meanwhile, overseas customers will look to countries without destructive trade barriers for their corn and soybeans. Argentina and Brazil could step up and permanently replace American producers.
Kansas legislators listened to experts warn about this incoming disaster Monday. Rep. Rui Xu, a Democrat from Westwood, asked the interim committee to weigh in with a letter to Trump and the Kansas congressional delegation. Instead, in a breathtaking betrayal, Republicans on the committee refused to stand up for Kansas farmers.
“It’s a bad move to undercut what most of the United States has voted for, and that’s a shrewd negotiator who’s going to do good for the United States of America. The last thing we need to do is somehow diminish that capability or give the idea that Kansas isn’t solidly behind the president,” said Rep. Sean Tarwater, R-Stilwell."
"Trump’s tariffs will wreck Kansas economy. Gutless wonders at the Statehouse won’t even protest." kansasreflector.com. November 20, 2024.
* * * * *
“As reported by Business Insider, AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele told analysts on an earnings call for the auto-parts company that if the president-elect enacts his proposed tariffs policy, “We will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer.”
Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle followed suit, announcing during his company’s earnings call in October that “trade wars are not good and not easy to win,” adding in a comment to The Washington Post that Columbia Sportswear was “set to raise prices” as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
“Coming out of the gate, there would be price increases associated with tariffs that we put into the market” — that’s how Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allen described his company’s response to Trump’s tariff proposals in an October earnings call.”
"3 Major Retailers Who Will Raise Prices Immediately Under Trump — Tariffs Play Key Role." gobankingrates.com. November 22, 2024.
* * * * *
"There was quick pushback to Trump's comments from all three countries. Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said: "No one will win a trade war or a tariff war" and "the idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into the United States runs completely counter to facts and reality."
Mexico's finance ministry said in a statement the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a trade pact Trump sponsored during his first term, provided "certainty" for investors. "The response to one tariff will be another, until we put at risk companies that we share," Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said, naming General Motors and Ford, among others. Sheinbaum said her comments, read aloud in a press conference, were sent in a letter to Trump.
Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, Canada's most populous province, said the tariffs would be "devastating to workers and jobs" in both the U.S. and Canada... "Trump got elected to lower the price of groceries. This and deportations will send grocery prices through the roof," said Bill Penzey, the owner of retailer Penzeys Spices, in emailed comments sent before Trump's announcement... "You can’t replace China Garlic with California Garlic when all the people who do the work and have the knowledge in the California Garlic industry have been deported," said Penzey, a frequent Trump critic.
"'Counter to facts and reality': China, Mexico, Canada respond to Trump tariff threats." usatoday.com. November 26, 2024.
* * * * *
“Crude oil, which is refined to produce gasoline and heating oil, is one of the top imports to the US from Canada. In July it reached a record of 4.3 million barrels per day following the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. The expansion has helped deliver more oil to be refined to much of the West Coast in addition to the Midwest, where it previously served most prominently.
“You can’t simply process different oil overnight. It would take investments/years. More US supply wouldn’t help,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X.
The 25% tariff Trump floated Monday would have “huge impacts” on gas prices, amounting to an increase of between 25 cents to 75 cents per gallon, De Haan said. That would most directly impact Americans located around the Great Lakes, Midwest and Rockies...
In 2022, the US imported $44.1 billion worth of agricultural products from Mexico, amounting to a fifth of all US agricultural products, according to Commerce Department data... For example, 90% of the avocados Americans consumed in 2022 were imported. Of the avocados imported into the US, 89% came from Mexico. Said differently, your guac and your avocado toast could skyrocket if 25% tariffs are levied on Mexico.
The United States imported $44.76 billion worth of vehicles from Mexico in 2023, making it the number-one import, according to Commerce Department data.
As more car manufacturers sought to get around tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, many moved their production to Mexico, making it a global hub for car factories, including General Motors, Ford, Stellantis and nearly a dozen more.
On Tuesday, shares of US carmakers plunged, with General Motors taking the biggest dive, closing down 9%. Virtually every American auto manufacturer depends on parts from Mexico to build its cars or trucks, because those parts can be substantially cheaper than those made in the US. But a 25% tariff would likely be a game changer there. And, behind cars themselves, car parts were the second-most imported good from Mexico last year.
Most of the alcohol the US imports comes from Mexico. For instance, Mexico provided the US with more than 80% of total beer imports in the first three quarters of FY 2024, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Additionally, tequila from Mexico and liqueurs from Canada have been “primary drivers of import growth” of distilled spirits, per the USDA.
Last year, the US imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal from Mexico, according to data from the Distilled Spirits Council, a trade group. That year, the US also imported more than half a billion dollars worth of Canadian spirits.
“At the end of the day, tariffs on spirits products from our neighbors to the north and south are going to hurt US consumers and lead to job losses across the US hospitality industry just as these businesses continue their long recovery from the pandemic,” Distilled Spirits Council president and CEO Chris Swonger said in a statement on Tuesday.
The new round of tariffs Trump is prepared to impose comes as the US has grown increasingly reliant on imports from Mexico and Canada.For the first time in more than two decades, Mexico overtook China as the top exporter of goods to the US last year, according to Commerce Department trade data. China is now the No. 2 exporter of goods into the US, and trailing very close behind it is Canada. That’s a big shift from just two years ago, when China was the top exporter of goods into the US, and Canada and Mexico hardly came close. This means that the new tariffs Trump pledged will be virtually inescapable for Americans, as businesses facing higher costs will likely pass that along to consumers."
"What could get more expensive if Trump launches a new trade war with Mexico and Canada." cnn.com. November 26, 2024.
* * * * *
"China is responsible for nearly 78% of U.S. vitamin imports come directly from China, which dominates the global production of key vitamins (B1, B3, B7, B12, D3 and K), according to the American Feed Industry Association. According to Trading Economics and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), some common items imported to the U.S. from China that could be affected by Trump's tariff plan include:
- Fish and crustaceans
- Vegetable fats and oils
- Vegetables (especially corn), fruit and nuts
- Soaps, lubricants, waxes, candles, modeling pastes
- Cereal, flour, starch, wheat and milk products
- Coffee, tea and spices
- Sugar
- Cocoa
- Dairy products, eggs, honey and edible products
- Vinegar
- Apple juice
- Garlic
In 2022, Mexico exported $421 billion to the U.S., with the main products being computers ($36.8 billion), cars ($34.1 billion) and motor vehicle parts and accessories ($31.8 billion), Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) said. Some grocery store items also make their way over to the states. According to Trading Economics and the (OEC), items imported to the U.S. from Mexico that could be affected by Trump's tariff plan include:
- Cereals
- Paper products
- Processed fruits and nuts
- Tropical fruits
- Tomatoes, onions, lettuce and cabbage
- Pickled foods
- Fruit juice
- Fertilizers
- Dairy products, eggs and honey
- Cotton
- Beer and hard liquor
- Coffee, tea, mate and spices
- Meat, fish and seafood
- Sauces and seasonings
- Baked goods
- Avocados
- Raw sugar
In 2022, Canada exported $438 billion to the U.S., with the main products being crude petroleum ($117 billion), cars ($27 billion) and petroleum gas ($22.4 billion), the OEC said. According to the Bureau of Industry and Security and Trading Economics, the main grocery store items that are imported from the U.S. to Canada, and could be affected by Trump's tariff plan, include:
- Wood
- Charcoal
- Aluminum
- Iron and steel appliances
- Cereal, flour, starch and milk products
- Rubbers
- Alcoholic beverages
- Carpets and other textile floor coverings
- Wool, animal hair, horsehair yarn and fabric
- Umbrellas, walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips
- Cotton
- Photographic or cinematographic goods
- Cork products
- Printed books
"Which grocery items could be affected by a Trump tariff? Fruit, vegetables, coffee and more." usatoday.com. November 26, 2024.
* * * * *
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government would retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with his threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on the country, warning of severe economic consequences for companies operating in both countries...
“For every tariff, there will be a response in kind,” Sheinbaum wrote in a letter sent to Trump. The text was released by the Mexican Embassy Tuesday morning, which said the economic fallout of a trade war would harm shared enterprises, particularly automotive companies that operate in both countries.
“Among Mexico’s main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico,” she added, according to a translated version of the letter provided by the Mexican Embassy...
Sheinbaum also pushed back on the U.S.' supposed trafficking of illegal firearms into Mexico, in another signal that cooperation between the North American neighbors might turn cool over the next four years. That would be a departure from former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s at times warm relationship with Trump during his first administration.
“Seventy percent of the illegal weapons seized from criminals in Mexico come from your country. We do not produce these weapons, nor do we consume synthetic drugs. Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours,” Sheinbaum wrote."
"Mexico floats trade retaliation in response to Trump’s tariff threats." politico.com. November 26, 2024.
* * * * *
Goldman Sachs, according to Bloomberg News reporters Yongchang Chin and Weilun Soon, is warning that U.S. consumers could face "significant consequences" if the tariffs are enacted...Chin and Soon note, "The U.S. imports almost 4 million barrels of Canadian crude a day, which allows American producers to export more of their own oil. The chief executive officer of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said tariffs would result in higher gasoline and energy costs for U.S. consumers."
"'Significant consequences': Major bank comes out swinging against Trump’s tariff proposal." alternet.org. November 27, 2024
* * * * *
"Experts and business groups are clear that tariffs would lift prices. A barrage of new duties on foreign imports would likely boost consumer costs on everything from vacuum cleaners to tiki torches, which are largely imported from China and are already subject to tariffs, according to Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the Cato Institute, a public policy research group.
The tariffs would also reduce American consumers' spending power by $90 billion on products including TVs, headphones, laptops and tablets, video game consoles, smartphones and other electronics, according to the Consumer Technology Association. The trade group — which modeled the impact of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, coupled with a 60% levy on goods from the country that Trump previously floated — estimated that laptops and tablets would see the steepest price hikes, with costs surging as much as 45%. Video game consoles and smartphones could also see double-digit gains.
Researchers assumed retailers would pass all added costs related to tariffs along to consumers. In the smartphone category, the average increase in price would be $213 per device, according to CTA. "The likelihood of retailers or any importer absorbing the tariff cost is very low, so the pass through to consumers will be quick," said Ed Brzytwa, vice president of international trade at CTA. "On all the products we looked at, there are going to be price increases."
Best Buy CEO Cory Barrie on Tuesday also said on the company's earnings call that Trump's proposed tariffs would force the retailer to raise costs on a range of consumer electronics, noting that "there's very little in consumer electronics space that is not imported."
Footwear is another goods category that experts are watching. According to Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), 99% of footwear sold in the U.S. is imported from other countries, with 56% of footwear by volume coming from China. "We know that if they apply tariffs on Chines goods and Chinese footwear, it will hit working families the hardest," FDRA CEO Matt Priest told CBS MoneyWatch.
Some retailers could also decide to hike prices whether or not they face added costs related to potential tariffs. "It's a pretty handy excuse when you're in a constant battle with consumers on price," Lincicome said. A number of retailers have already suggested that the proposed tariffs could force them to raise prices. In an email to customers, filtered shower head maker Jolie said this week that tariffs on goods made outside of the U.S. would "mean we would need to raise our prices."
"If you're considering buying a Jolie, now is a great time to lock in our current prices," the company added. Currently, a shower head with a filter subscription costs $148. The company announced a "potential" new price of $178.
Home furnishings giant Ikea told CNN that Trump's tariffs, if enacted, would make it more difficult for the company to keep its prices low. "Tariffs make it more difficult for us to maintain the low prices and be affordable for many people, which in the end is our goal," Jesper Brodin, Ingka Group CEO, told CNN. "But it's beyond our control. We will need to understand and adapt."
Adding a 25% tariff to Canadian imports would affect crude oil, which is imported from Western Canada and refined at U.S. facilities, according to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at Gas Buddy. "Canada and Mexico are huge U.S. trading partners, so it's a shot across the bow of longtime U.S. allies," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CBS MoneyWatch.
"For a lot of the U.S., it could be problematic for what they pay at the pump," De Haan said of the tariffs' impact, in particular to inland regions such as the Great Lakes, Midwest and the Rockies. "The coastal areas have more options — they don't rely as much on Canadian crude." Although the U.S. is the world's leading oil producer, we still import a lot of crude, with Canada providing roughly 20% of the oil used stateside. As a result, gas prices could shoot up 30 to 40 cents a gallon, and potentially up to 70 cents, within as little as two days after the tariffs take effect, De Haan said.
"Trump tariffs could make these items more expensive." cbsnews.com. November 27, 2024.
* * * * *
"Trump’s proposal would also trash the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the free-trade accord Trump himself signed in 2020, and inevitably produce retaliation from the affected countries; Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already said that if Trump imposes these tariffs, Mexico will respond in kind.
We saw that in the first Trump administration as well: When he imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China responded by cutting off imports of American agricultural commodities. American farmers who rely on exports had their livelihoods threatened, so the Trump administration paid them off. In the end, 92% of the revenues brought in by the tariffs — which were essentially paid by American taxpayers — went right into bailouts of farmers, to the tune of over $60 billion...
“To me, the world’s most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariffs. It’s my favorite word,” Trump has said, and now he is promising tariffs much more comprehensive than those implemented during his first term. That experience gives us a guide to how his future tariffs will be deployed. As soon as tariffs were enacted in his first term, his administration was besieged by lobbyists, who filed thousands of requests for special exemptions and carve-outs to allow their clients to import goods and parts without paying the tariffs.
And who found favor with the Trump administration? According to one study, companies that had donated to Republican candidates were more likely to get their exemption requests approved; one of the researchers called it “a very effective spoils system.” While small businesses lacked the resources to file for exclusions, bigger corporations and their chief executives could expend the time and money necessary to claim carve-outs.
In a second term, Trump won’t just be doling out favors; he’ll also deliver punishments. Apple and its CEO, Tim Cook, offer an illustrative case study. Throughout Trump’s first term, Cook buttered Trump up with personal attention, something other CEOs who found Trump personally repugnant were more reluctant to do.
As The Wall Street Journal recently reported, Cook tailored a strategy to massage Trump’s ego over a series of meals and meetings in which he would explain how Apple’s interests dovetailed with Trump’s. “That’s why he’s a great executive, because he calls me and others don’t,” Trump would later say. The strategy paid off with tax breaks and changes to Trump’s tariff plan that kept the iPhone safe from price increases that would go into government coffers rather than Apple’s."
"Trump’s tariffs proposal is a preview of the corruption to come." msnbc.com. November 27, 2024.
* * * * *
"Mexicans are worried that threats by Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs could affect a wide range of iconic Mexican products and threaten entire regional economies.
In western Mexico, no crop supplies an income for so many small growers as avocados. But avocado growers, pickers and packers worry that U.S. consumers, faced with 25% higher prices, may just skip the guacamole.
“I think that when there is an increase in the price for any product, demand declines,” said avocado grower Enrique Espinoza. Orchards like his are the economic lifeblood in the western Mexico state of Michoacan. “It would be a tragedy if they closed down (the border) on us,” he said.
Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration — when he said he would impose tariffs — couldn’t come at a worse time: It’s around when Mexico starts shipping crates of the green fruit north for Super Bowl Sunday, the annual peak of consumption.
It may not just be Mexican producers who are affected; U.S. consumers may also be howling.Mexican business leader Gina Diez Barroso told a news conference Tuesday that one U.S. agriculture official told her he had never had as many complaints as when the U.S. government halted import inspections on Mexican avocados in 2022 “Never in his life had he had so much chaos in his office, because they halted Mexican avocados,” Diez Barroso said.
Espinoza agrees that consumers are likely to share the pain. “The gringos need avocados, it is a good product, and I don’t think they are going to stop consuming it,” he said. Rather, the reverse effect has him worried; if Mexico retaliates with its own tariffs, as President Claudia Sheinbaum has suggested, Mexicans will face not just a drop in income, but high prices for U.S. products like corn, which is a main supply of feed for animals in Mexico.
“There are more poor people here, so in some ways it is going to hit us,” Espinoza said. “The United States can pay 25% more for Mexican products, very few of us have enough money to pay 25% more for what we import from the United States. It’s not just the guacamole; Mexican tequila producers have seen a bonanza in the U.S. market. In 2023, the U.S. imported $4.6 billion worth of tequila and $108 million worth of mezcal from Mexico. That has raised cautious concern among tequila producers, including farmers who grow agave on some of the driest, marginal soils that couldn’t support many other crops. “We are analyzing the statements by the authorities and their reactions, and in the coming days we will establish a position,” the National Tequila Industry Chamber said in a statement.
And industry representatives say a drop in the consumption of tequila — America’s third-most popular spirit, behind vodka and pre-mixed cocktails — could affect U.S. bars, restaurants and clubs At the end of the day, tariffs on spirits products from our neighbors to the north and south are going to hurt U.S. consumers and lead to job losses across the U.S. hospitality industry just as these businesses continue their long recovery from the pandemic,” the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. said in a statement.
The tariffs would probably plunge Mexico into an immediate recession. Mexican financial group Banco Base estimated in a report that for every 1% that Mexican exports increase in price, their volume falls by 1.33%.
Supposing that Americans might absorb half the impact of the tariffs and just pay higher prices for Mexican goods, they still might reduce their consumption by 12%, Banco Base estimated. “This would be reflected in a 4.4% drop in gross domestic product,” the bank wrote, adding “the decline would not just occur in 2025, but would get more serious the longer the tariffs last.”
And the tariffs could affect some products that aren’t thought of as particularly Mexican at all. Mexico’s Economy Secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, said Wednesday that 88% percent of all North American pickup trucks come from Mexico, though it was unclear if he meant just parts of the trucks or their final assembly. Ebrard claimed that 25% tariffs would mean U.S. consumers might have to pay $3,000 more per pickup truck. “It is shooting yourself in the foot,” Ebrard said.
"Avocados, tequila and other iconic Mexican products are jeopardized by Trump’s tariff threats." apneas.com. November 28, 2024.
* * * * *
"Immediately following Trump's election, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland reassembled a group of ministers to manage Canada-US relations, as was done during Trump's first stint in the White House.They are tasked with preparing responses to US actions and lobbying US lawmakers and members of Trump's inner circle. During Trump's first term, when he imposed tariffs in 2018 on Canadian steel and aluminum, Canada responded tit-for-tat. However, it chose to target US products for their political rather than economic impact, such as Florida orange juice and Kentucky bourbon – both hailing from states led by Republicans."
"CANADA PREPARES TO PUSH BACK AGAINST TRUMP'S TARIFF THREATS." tag24.com. November 29, 2024.
* * * * *
"In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the 100% tariff would affect all BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates—until they commit to not creating a new BRICS currency or back another currency that could replace the “mighty” dollar...BRICS was founded as an informal international group in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China, though its membership expanded to more nations with “reflecting common stances on topical global development issues,” according to the organization. The group has increasingly called for reduced dependence on the U.S. as it aims to establish new financial organizations."
"Donald Trump Threatens BRICS Countries—Including Russia, India—With 100% Tariffs." forbes.com. November 30, 2024.
* * * * *
History teaches us lessons, and sadly we often forget them while drunk on the political cocktail of the moment. During the first Trump presidency, significant tariffs were imposed on China. This led to major negative impacts on U.S. farmers. What did the government do? The Trump administration created an ad hoc disaster relief program that paid billions to U.S. farmers. “Ad hoc” is just a shiny term for an administration not being able to get its act together to have a consistent and logical approach to setting policy...Withdrawal from engagement with other nations, whether in the context of trade or overall foreign relations, cannot lead to good consequences from the standpoint of economic security for America, nor for our nation’s ability to play a strong role in maintaining a stable and peaceful world...
My fellow farmers, it is time for a reality check. There is way more than a theoretical risk of losing a large share of the markets for our grains and livestock. Don’t count on that brown envelope from Uncle Sam in your mailbox to bail you out from hardship. From the extensive reading that I have done on the topic of the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, no credible economist paints any picture other than one of significant detrimental consequences to our agricultural sector. The same is true for many other segments of the economy."
"My fellow Kansas farmers: We need a reality check about Trump’s reckless tariff war | Opinion." kansascity.com. December 1, 2024.
* * * * *
Cerullo adds that Trump's new tariffs "would also reduce American consumers' spending power by $90 billion on products, including TVs, headphones, laptops and tablets, video game consoles, smartphones and other electronics, according to the Consumer Technology Association."
"The trade group — which modeled the impact of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, coupled with a 60 percent levy on goods from the country that Trump previously floated — estimated that laptops and tablets would see the steepest price hikes, with costs surging as much as 45 percent," Cerulla reports. "Video game consoles and smartphones could also see double-digit gains. Researchers assumed retailers would pass all added costs related to tariffs along to consumers."
Cerulla continues, "In the smartphone category, the average increase in price would be $213 per device, according to CTA." Footwear, according to Cerulla, is also likely to soar in price if Trump's proposed tariffs are enacted. Matt Priest, CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), told CBS News, "We know that if they apply tariffs on Chines goods and Chinese footwear, it will hit working families the hardest."
"'$213 per device': Prices for these products are expected to soar under Trump tariffs." alternate.org. November 28, 2024.
* * * * *
"Economic analyst Catherine Rampell, speaking to CNN, warned that the tariffs could raise prices on a wide range of consumer goods. "Two-thirds of the tomatoes that Americans purchase are from Mexico," Rampell said. "90% of the avocados that they purchase are from Mexico, just to mention two examples. So, that guac is definitely going to cost extra."
Tariffs on Canada may also impact the cost of housing, including building, buying new and remodeling. Canada exports much of the lumber and cement used in U.S. construction.
Car prices may also go up. Tariffs on automotive parts could disrupt North American supply chains, which rely on materials and components crossing borders multiple times during production.
Rampell mentioned that consumers won't be the only ones who feel the pinch of these changes. Canada and Mexico may retaliate with tariffs of their own, which Rampell says will be "very bad" for consumers and the U.S. workers that "Trump allegedly wants to help..."
Canada is one of the largest U.S. trading partners, with $2.7 billion worth of goods crossing the border daily. Trump's tariffs could disrupt this trade and hurt the industries that depend on these imports...
Mexico, the U.S.'s largest supplier of agricultural produce and a key player in North American manufacturing, will also be deeply affected. Economists warn that tariffs could undermine decades of trade integration established under agreements like NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA...
According to The Hill, supply chains in industries such as automotive and energy depend on seamless trade across borders. Disrupting these networks with tariffs could lead to inefficiencies, higher production costs and retaliatory tariffs from Mexico. Farmers, in particular, could suffer as export markets for U.S. grains and meat products shrink.
President of Farmers for Free Trade, Bob Hemesath, voiced concerns about potential retaliation. "A renewed trade war will hurt American farmers," he said. "A trade war will mean retaliatory tariffs, lost ag trade markets, a leg up for farm exporters in South America and elsewhere and billions in lost exports..."
Beyond the immediate economic impact, experts warn that the instability caused by the tariffs could harm U.S. credibility in future trade negotiations. Ildefonso Guajardo, Mexico's former secretary of economy, said that breaking trade agreements undermines trust in the U.S. and causes a loss of credibility.
With rising costs and potential disruptions to supply chains, Trump's tariffs may have far-reaching consequences for the average American budget. As discussions between the U.S., Canada, Mexico and China continue, the true impact of these policies remains uncertain – but for now, experts agree that the costs could outweigh the benefits.
"Trump's Tariffs On Canada, Mexico And China Could Hurt Your Budget More." benzinga.com
* * * * *
Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, tried to soothe consumers’ worries, telling Business Insider that in his first term as President, Trump also instituted tariffs on China with little inflation impact. However, they were not as significant and they also didn’t result in any of the promised manufacturing jobs, according to AP News
According to the Tax Foundation, the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs would generate $1.2 trillion in tax revenue from 2025 through 2034, but it would actually reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by almost half a percent and reduce jobs by nearly 345,000. It added, “Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war.” Furthermore, the NRF estimated these tariffs will reduce consumers’ buying power by multiple billions.
"Lowe’s and 5 More Companies Set To Raise Prices on These Popular Items Due to Trump’s Tariffs." https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/companies-set-to-raise-prices-on-these-popular-items-due-to-trumps-tariffs/ December 5, 2024.
No comments:
Post a Comment