Thinking From Behind A COVID-19 "Veil Of Ignorance"

(a thought experiment inspired by John Rawls)

 

John Rawls (1921-2002) argued that we could determine just ethical principles by seeing what a free and rational people would choose if they attempted to create a just society from behind a ‘veil of ignorance’. 

 

John Rawls proposed a famous thought-experiment in which a group of humans come together and have to devise a set of principles for their society to work by. The imaginary part of this is that the individuals doing the deciding are told that there will be some people of greater and lesser intelligence, greater and lesser degrees of health, greater and lesser pigment in their skin, ability to lead, to follow, to carve wood, to care for babies, etc etc – in other words, these people would represent a reasonable cross-section of the types found in human society. However, the deciding individuals did not know which attributes they themselves possessed...

This ‘veil of ignorance’ Rawls thought would ensure a just distribution of rights and duties in his hypothetical society – just as if you were in charge of cutting up a pizza to share and only knowing that you would get the last piece: you would do your best to cut it equally. (“Deontological Ethics.” http://www.sevenoaksphilosophy.org/ethics/deontology.html)

 

Rawls thought that people would likely agree to things that would benefit the population no matter their situation: freedom of speech; a limited role for a government influenced by or answerable to the people; an equitable social system wherein people have equal opportunity, access to resources; a system that encourages virtue, etc. 

 

This veil of ignorance would make people aware that that they could be among the disadvantaged or marginalized, and they would want to make laws that would protect them if they were one of the weaker members of society and not punish them if they were one of the stronger.  

 

With that foundation in mind, let’s apply that idea to COVID-19.

MemeTalk: Are We Being Conditioned To View Freedom As Selfish?

I've been seeing commentary on freedom during COVID-19 pop up on social media, and why not? Who doesn't love freedom? And who doesn't want to avoid being conditioned by "they"? It got me thinking about how we Christians wrestle with notion of freedom in general, especially our exercise of the freedoms guaranteed to us as citizens of the United States. 

My thoughts are almost certainly incomplete and perhaps misguided, but I really think we need to wrestle more deeply with the broader theme that this meme addresses.

Living In Fear Or Faith? COVID-19 Edition

Person A wears a mask all the time, social distances, and sanitizes because they do not want to get the coronavirus. 

Person B takes Vitamin D, some herbs, essential oils, and works on building their immune system naturally because they do not want to get the coronavirus. 

 

1. A is living in fear.

2. B is living in fear.

3. A and B are both living in fear.

4. Neither A nor B are living in fear.

 

If #1 or #2, what distinguishes the two?

If #4, what word would you use to describe them: “They are living in _______”

COVID-19: My Little Library Of Statistics And Analysis

For months now, I have been slowly building a document of COVID-19 resources when I run across things that catch my eye: a post on social media that I wanted to check;  an intriguing news story floating through my Flipboard feed; friends who work in the medical field post heart-breaking updates on their work in hospitals, only to be dismissed as if they must be lying. Sometimes I read articles (rightly) criticizing the inconsistency of public health organizations over time, or the words vs. the actions of politicians who said one thing and did another. Sometimes I simply wanted to know more about how to first re-open and then keep open our church in a way that offers a reasonably safe and accommodating space.

Whatever the reason, I built this document over time. It represents a pursuit of knowledge; I am well aware it's not the end of it! And as serious as I believe the coronavirus to be (as you will see), I’m not curled up in a ball quivering in fear, as anyone who knows me can attest. I assume I will get it at some point (as most of us will); I assume I will be like most people in my demographic, and when I do get it, it will be somewhere on a spectrum short of fatal, and likely relatively mild, though it's definitely unpredictable. [1] So that’s not why I compile stuff like this. I just want to know what’s true about the world. 

Oh, and one other note. 

I am interested in the stats and the science for the purposes of this post, so I don' have anything about politics or freedoms or the constitution here. Those are important topics for a different time. They just aren't my focus here. You can write that one :)

At to the science, it has obviously and publicly evolved over time around the entire world. It’s frustrating, and it can understandably make us leery of trusting authoritative voices, but it’s how science works. It's not a sign of a nefarious plot. I am far more confident in the science now than I was six months ago, for sure. I’m also sure three months from now doctors and epidemiologists will know even more, and will have pivoted yet again in some way.  

With that in mind, if you want to add to the discussion by agreeing or disagreeing - and I would like you to add to this, because I want to pursue truth as I build this database -  post links and offer thoughtful insights from your research and experience. I don’t mind being thoughtfully challenged. I’m not a big fan of being called stupid or deceived or ‘sheeple.’ That line of discussion will not be pursued. 

Church In The Time Of The Virus (Episode 15): Civil (Dis)Obedience

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Episode 1: Introduction)
(Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Episode 6: Faithfulness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Episode 12: Is COVID-19 A Judgment From God?)
(Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)

EPISODE 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience

Church In The Time Of The Virus (Episode 12): Is COVID-19 A Judgment From God?

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Read and Watch Episode 6: Faithfulness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Church In The Time Of The Virus (Episode 11): A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Read and Watch Episode 6: Faithfulness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Thinking With Both Hands (Episode 10)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Read and Watch Episode 6: Faithfulness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands

Church In The Time Of The Virus: The Church's History During Plagues (Episode 7)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Watch and Read Episode 6: Faith-fullness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 7: Faithfulness Requires Humble Obedience

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Faith-fullness involves Trust (Episode 5)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others)
(Watch and Read Episode 6: Faith-fullness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 5: Faithfulness Involves Trust

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others (Episode 4)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Watch and Read Episode 6: Faith-fullness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, Not Others.

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Bold, But Not Foolhardy (Episode 3)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 2:Fearless, Not Fearful)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, and Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Watch and Read Episode 6: Faith-fullness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 3: Bold, Not Foolhardy

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Fearless, Not Fearful (Episode 2)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. Thus, The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's Facebook page several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

(Read and Watch Episode 1: Introduction)
(Read and Watch Episode 3: Bold, But Not Foolhardy)
(Read and Watch Episode 4: Sacrificial Of Self, and Not Others)
(Read and Watch Episode 5: Faith-fullness Involves Trust)
(Watch and Read Episode 6: Faith-fullness Requires Humble Obedience)
(Read and Watch Episode 7: The Church's History During Plagues)
(Read and Watch Episode 8: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 9: Spurgeon And The Plague Of London)
(Read and Watch Episode 10: Thinking With Both Hands)
(Read and Watch Episode 11: A Few Thoughts Have Been Brewing)
(Read and Watch Episode 12: Is COVID -19 A Judgment From God)
(Read and Watch Episode 13: Romans 12-14 - Coronavirus Version)
(Episode 14: Dear American Christian)
(Episode 15: Civil (Dis)Obedience)

Episode 2: Fearless, Not Fearful.

Church In The Time Of The Virus: Introduction (Episode 1)

When churches suspended their weekly brick and mortar meetings, I decided to take some time to address online what it looks like for the church to be the church in times like this. So begins a short series on The Church In The Time Of The Virus. I began posting this on my church's site several weeks ago; since then, I have had some thoughtful conversations sparked by some of the issues I addressed. Because of that - and because I like wrestling thoughtfully with important ideas - each post is going to follow this format:

• Video
• Transcript
• Reflections

The beautiful thing about the reflections part is that I can constantly update it, so the conversation can continue! You are welcome to offer helpful comments in the comment section and be a part of this conversation/archival record (as local and modest as it is).

So, with no further ado, here's Episode 1.

What The World Is Doing About COVID-19, And Why

Somehow, the coronavirus situation has become deeply political in the United States. Rather than the experts – the WHO, the CDC, epidemiologists – leading the way, cable news pundits, youtube personalities, and politicians are framing the narrative around media bias, “fake news,” conspiracies, political partisanship, and economics.

Maybe - just maybe - we are better off looking to places that haven't politicized a disease.

The response in other nations overwhelmingly suggests that we ought to be taking this seriously. Even if the United States were hopelessly compromised by partisan gamesmanship, fake news, or political and financial manipulation, the rest of the world is still accessible for us to study – and they just might have something important to offer.

• The WHO has just declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic.
• 14 nations have closed schools; 300 million kids are out of school. 
• In Italy, Switzerland, England, France, Germany, soccer matches have been cancelled or played without spectators - and if you know anything about soccer in those countries, that’s a big deal.
• Riyadh introduced a ban on Saudi citizens, residents and foreigners hoping to visit Mecca and Medina for the Umrah pilgrimage. If you know anything about Islam, that’s a big deal. 
• Hong Kong Disney is closed. 
• The Cherry Blossom festival in Tokyo is off.
• All of Italy is under quarantine. The Coliseum in Rome is closed.
• Northern Ireland is cancelling all its parades, including the St. Patrick's Day parade, at the cost of millions of euros to their economy. 
• The biggest tech events of the year are being cancelled to the tune of $1 billion dollars in economic loss. 
• Israel is placing anyone arriving from overseas into quarantine for 14 days.
• Germany, in spite of its remarkably low morbidity rate, "has recently scrapped several huge fairs, including ITB, the world's largest tourism event, industrial show Hannover Messe and the Leipzig Book Fair, the world's second largest," as well as asking people to work from home and stop taking public transportation.

We have at least two other coronaviruses on record, and they were not good. 

• MERS (2,499 cases, 861 deaths) had an over 30% mortality rate.
• SARS (8,437 cases, 813 deaths) had a 10% mortality rate.
• COVID-19 (126,000 cases, 4,613 deaths as of today) currently has a speculated mortality rate between 1% and 3%. That's a LOT better than 30% and 10%, but it's already hit a lot more people than MERS or SARS. There's a lot of regional variation - even within China it fluctuates between 5.8 and 0.7 percent. The low numbers are probably due to early diagnosis and treatment (see Germany's 0.2% mortality rate); the high numbers have a lot to do with age and pre-existing conditions (see Italy's 5%).

So, how does it compare to the flu?

• COVID-19 has a mortality rate between 1% and 3%, as opposed to the common flu, which has a .1% rate. If as many people get COVID-19 as get the flu, deaths multiply x10 at minimum.
• It has a median incubation period of 5 days, with outliers running as high as 14 days. The flu's incubation period is 1-4 days, with an average of 2 days. People have a lot more time to unknowingly spread COVID-19.
• 10-15% of COVID-19 patients are hospitalized, as opposed to 1% of flu patients. The length of hospital stay for those who died in ICU in China was 28 days on average — three days in hospital and 25 days in ICU.
• If COVID-19 spreads in the US as the trajectories around the world suggest, hospitals will be at max capacity by early May. If - if - COVID-19 hits as many people as the common flu has, the death toll will be devastating, and our hospitals overwhelmed. 

The people in the 117 other countries/regions with the coronavirus are not fools. In the multitude of counselors, there is wisdom. There is a reason why so many precautions are being taken: we don’t want to know what will happen if we don’t take this seriously.

This is why around the world, it’s being taken seriously. Early and thorough intervention seems to be helping quite a bit if for no other reason than keeping hospitals below max capacity, which allows for more thorough treatment.

Yes, more people die of the flu - because up to this point, more people have had the flu. If that changes - well, let's plan and pray so that it does not.